The Keys to the White House, developed by Allan Lichtman, is a system for predicting the popular vote result of American presidential elections, based on the theory of pragmatic voting. America’s electorate, according to this theory, chooses a president, not according to events of the campaign, but according to how well the party in control of the White House has governed the country. If the voters are content with the party in power, it gains

Unity Through Solutions

Alan Lichtman Predicts Impeachment

as reported and with attribution

The Keys to the White House, developed by Allan Lichtman, is a system for predicting the popular vote result of American presidential elections, based on the theory of pragmatic voting. America’s electorate, according to this theory, chooses a president, not according to events of the campaign, but according to how well the party in control of the White House has governed the country. If the voters are content with the party in power, it gains four more years in the White House; if not, the challenging party prevails. Thus, the choice of a president does not turn on debates, advertising, speeches, endorsements, rallies, platforms, promises, or campaign tactics. Rather, presidential elections are primarily referenda on the performance of the party holding the White House.

Method

Lichtman first developed the Keys system in 1981, in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, founder of…

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